Depeg Duration Resolver Changelog
Full version history of DDR methodology decisions, from v1.0 to v3.01.
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Latest Version
v3.01Jun 6, 2026
Live Context Input Wiring
Wired Stage 1's documented live-context inputs into the Worker DDR precompute path.
Impact Snapshot
- Uses fresh DEWS sub-signals to derive bank-run and blacklist-surge inputs for K5 and K3
- Uses the same 7-day DEX TVL baseline selection as the liquidity API for K5 exit-collapse checks
- Hydrates the latest Safety Score history row so R5 mean-reversion anchors and related context use live report-card data
- Marks DDR runs degraded when these required context-source queries fail instead of scoring with silently absent inputs
v3.01Jun 6, 2026Live Context Input Wiring
Wired Stage 1's documented live-context inputs into the Worker DDR precompute path.
- Uses fresh DEWS sub-signals to derive bank-run and blacklist-surge inputs for K5 and K3
- Uses the same 7-day DEX TVL baseline selection as the liquidity API for K5 exit-collapse checks
- Hydrates the latest Safety Score history row so R5 mean-reversion anchors and related context use live report-card data
- Marks DDR runs degraded when these required context-source queries fail instead of scoring with silently absent inputs
DetailsHide details
v3.01Jun 6, 2026
Live Context Input Wiring
Wired Stage 1's documented live-context inputs into the Worker DDR precompute path.
- Uses fresh DEWS sub-signals to derive bank-run and blacklist-surge inputs for K5 and K3
- Uses the same 7-day DEX TVL baseline selection as the liquidity API for K5 exit-collapse checks
- Hydrates the latest Safety Score history row so R5 mean-reversion anchors and related context use live report-card data
- Marks DDR runs degraded when these required context-source queries fail instead of scoring with silently absent inputs
Impact Notes
- Uses fresh DEWS sub-signals to derive bank-run and blacklist-surge inputs for K5 and K3
- Uses the same 7-day DEX TVL baseline selection as the liquidity API for K5 exit-collapse checks
- Hydrates the latest Safety Score history row so R5 mean-reversion anchors and related context use live report-card data
- Marks DDR runs degraded when these required context-source queries fail instead of scoring with silently absent inputs
Commit provenance not recorded
v3.0Jun 4, 2026Forecast Readiness Contract
Added the shared DDR forecast-readiness contract for readiness-gated locks with immutable public metadata.
- Introduces the readiness-72h-v1 forecast-readiness version and a strict early-lock threshold
- Publishes row-level readiness components and reasons as forecast readiness, not a probability or confidence label
- Adds optional/defaulted lock trigger, readiness, and 72h backstop metadata to the public contract while preserving legacy rows
- Includes new immutable readiness metadata in public row hash payloads when present
DetailsHide details
v3.0Jun 4, 2026
Forecast Readiness Contract
Added the shared DDR forecast-readiness contract for readiness-gated locks with immutable public metadata.
- Introduces the readiness-72h-v1 forecast-readiness version and a strict early-lock threshold
- Publishes row-level readiness components and reasons as forecast readiness, not a probability or confidence label
- Adds optional/defaulted lock trigger, readiness, and 72h backstop metadata to the public contract while preserving legacy rows
- Includes new immutable readiness metadata in public row hash payloads when present
Impact Notes
- Introduces the readiness-72h-v1 forecast-readiness version and a strict early-lock threshold
- Publishes row-level readiness components and reasons as forecast readiness, not a probability or confidence label
- Adds optional/defaulted lock trigger, readiness, and 72h backstop metadata to the public contract while preserving legacy rows
- Includes new immutable readiness metadata in public row hash payloads when present
Commit provenance not recorded
v2.0May 27, 2026Sticky Public Prediction Contract
Replaced live DDR drift with DDRv2: one immutable public prediction or no-call at the 24h lock landmark, backed by manifest publication and append-only errata.
- Freezes one official public_prediction outcome per canonical incident key instead of recomputing public forecasts every run
- Adds pending, lock-deferred, publication-retry, no-call, frozen, and invalidated public states with live facts separated from frozen prediction payloads
- Anchors duration estimates to the lock timestamp and preserves frozen fields on stale responses while marking live overlays stale
- Moves DDRR accountability to first-published sealed outcomes and explicit coverage states rather than mutable latest snapshots
DetailsHide details
v2.0May 27, 2026
Sticky Public Prediction Contract
Replaced live DDR drift with DDRv2: one immutable public prediction or no-call at the 24h lock landmark, backed by manifest publication and append-only errata.
- Freezes one official public_prediction outcome per canonical incident key instead of recomputing public forecasts every run
- Adds pending, lock-deferred, publication-retry, no-call, frozen, and invalidated public states with live facts separated from frozen prediction payloads
- Anchors duration estimates to the lock timestamp and preserves frozen fields on stale responses while marking live overlays stale
- Moves DDRR accountability to first-published sealed outcomes and explicit coverage states rather than mutable latest snapshots
Impact Notes
- Freezes one official public_prediction outcome per canonical incident key instead of recomputing public forecasts every run
- Adds pending, lock-deferred, publication-retry, no-call, frozen, and invalidated public states with live facts separated from frozen prediction payloads
- Anchors duration estimates to the lock timestamp and preserves frozen fields on stale responses while marking live overlays stale
- Moves DDRR accountability to first-published sealed outcomes and explicit coverage states rather than mutable latest snapshots
Commit provenance not recorded
v1.1May 25, 2026Depeg Duration Resolver Reviewer
Added the Depeg Duration Resolver Reviewer (DDRR), the audit layer that scores stored DDR assessments against later canonical depeg-event outcomes.
- Stores quarter-hourly DDR assessment checkpoints and reviews the first checkpoint for each event under the current methodology
- Publishes recovery-likelihood accuracy and average observed-minus-DDR recovery-duration error on /depeg/ and GET /api/depeg-resolver-review
- Keeps pending, insufficient-signal, and data-issue rows visible while excluding them from scored headline accuracy
- Removes terminal-lifecycle assets from live DDR readouts while DDRR scores their stored predictions as terminal outcomes
DetailsHide details
v1.1May 25, 2026
Depeg Duration Resolver Reviewer
Added the Depeg Duration Resolver Reviewer (DDRR), the audit layer that scores stored DDR assessments against later canonical depeg-event outcomes.
- Stores quarter-hourly DDR assessment checkpoints and reviews the first checkpoint for each event under the current methodology
- Publishes recovery-likelihood accuracy and average observed-minus-DDR recovery-duration error on /depeg/ and GET /api/depeg-resolver-review
- Keeps pending, insufficient-signal, and data-issue rows visible while excluding them from scored headline accuracy
- Removes terminal-lifecycle assets from live DDR readouts while DDRR scores their stored predictions as terminal outcomes
Impact Notes
- Stores quarter-hourly DDR assessment checkpoints and reviews the first checkpoint for each event under the current methodology
- Publishes recovery-likelihood accuracy and average observed-minus-DDR recovery-duration error on /depeg/ and GET /api/depeg-resolver-review
- Keeps pending, insufficient-signal, and data-issue rows visible while excluding them from scored headline accuracy
- Removes terminal-lifecycle assets from live DDR readouts while DDRR scores their stored predictions as terminal outcomes
Commit provenance not recorded
v1.0May 25, 2026Initial Depeg Duration Resolver
Launched the two-stage Depeg Duration Resolver: a mechanistic Resolution Outlook (terminal vs recoverable) and a stratified empirical duration estimate over recovered historical incidents.
- Stage 1 emits an ordinal verdict (recovery_likely / at_risk / recovery_unlikely / insufficient_signal) from kill signals and recovery anchors over structural metadata and the live depeg fingerprint
- Stage 2 emits a depth/direction/structural-class stratified landmark estimate with per-horizon (6h/24h/7d/30d) resolution likelihood, support-gated and Wilson-bounded
- Verdicts are calibrated domain reads, not fitted probabilities; audit-verdict gating is not used because event provenance is unpopulated
DetailsHide details
v1.0May 25, 2026
Initial Depeg Duration Resolver
Launched the two-stage Depeg Duration Resolver: a mechanistic Resolution Outlook (terminal vs recoverable) and a stratified empirical duration estimate over recovered historical incidents.
- Stage 1 emits an ordinal verdict (recovery_likely / at_risk / recovery_unlikely / insufficient_signal) from kill signals and recovery anchors over structural metadata and the live depeg fingerprint
- Stage 2 emits a depth/direction/structural-class stratified landmark estimate with per-horizon (6h/24h/7d/30d) resolution likelihood, support-gated and Wilson-bounded
- Verdicts are calibrated domain reads, not fitted probabilities; audit-verdict gating is not used because event provenance is unpopulated
Impact Notes
- Stage 1 emits an ordinal verdict (recovery_likely / at_risk / recovery_unlikely / insufficient_signal) from kill signals and recovery anchors over structural metadata and the live depeg fingerprint
- Stage 2 emits a depth/direction/structural-class stratified landmark estimate with per-horizon (6h/24h/7d/30d) resolution likelihood, support-gated and Wilson-bounded
- Verdicts are calibrated domain reads, not fitted probabilities; audit-verdict gating is not used because event provenance is unpopulated
Commit provenance not recorded